Prediction of Naoki Nakagawa vs Jumpei Yamasaki at Yokohama Challenger 11-17-25

• Naoki Nakagawa has recently won 47.13% of points on his second serve, a slight edge over Jumpei Yamasaki's 43.97%.
• Why might return game stats matter? Jumpei Yamasaki has the advantage here, winning 47.83% of opponent's second serve points compared to Naoki Nakagawa's 41.31%.
• Yamasaki also performs better on first serve returns, with 26.58% compared to Nakagawa’s 23.98%.
• Under pressure, Nakagawa has saved 55.49% of breakpoints, outperforming Yamasaki who has saved 49.30%.
• In the past year, Nakagawa has won 41.03% of his matches, while Yamasaki leads significantly with a 64.00% win rate.
• Both players show their best win percentage on indoor hard courts, each achieving 61%.
• Considering match levels, Nakagawa plays mostly at the Challengers/ITF level, winning 30.43%, whereas Yamasaki thrives at the Futures/Satellites/ITF level, with a higher winning rate of 63.27%.
• In their head-to-head matchup, Yamasaki leads 1-0, capturing both sets in their prior encounter.
• Yamasaki has faced slightly tougher opponents, with an average rank of 408.3, compared to Nakagawa's average opponent rank of 436.97.
• If the match goes to a deciding set, Yamasaki has a slight edge, winning 30% of such situations compared to Nakagawa’s 25%.
• Both players have nearly equal breakpoint conversion rates, with Nakagawa at 28.21% and Yamasaki marginally better at 28.95%.

Editorial Prediction (November 16, 2025, UTC):

Analyzing the recent performances, Jumpei Yamasaki exhibits a stronger return game, specifically on both the first and second serves. His ability to return well underlines a crucial advantage over Naoki Nakagawa in this matchup.

While Nakagawa demonstrates a better ability to save breakpoints and performs well under pressure, Yamasaki's higher match win rate and prior head-to-head victory establish him as a formidable opponent.

Given their competitive surface compatibility and Yamasaki's consistent performance over the past year, he appears more equipped to clinch a victory in their upcoming match.

Based on the analyzed statistics and current form, Jumpei Yamasaki seems more likely to emerge victorious in their upcoming tennis match.